U.S. Economic Highlights

November 14, 2006

Is the economy strong or on the wrong track? The unemployment rate is low, but so was job growth in the last month (and changes in employment tend to lag changes in the economic environment). Inflation is still relatively low — low enough to allow the Federal Reserve to remain on pause for a second straight month. Car and housing sales were not rebounding in the early part of the autumn season. And the forward indicator of economic activity, the Leading Economic Index, remained soft through September. In short, the economic data were mixed through the latest week, but perhaps poised for a few more negative reports than positive ones, moving into the holiday season — only a week ahead now.