Housing Starts and Building Permits (Bureau of the Census)

Friday, November 17, 2006


8:30 AM Housing Starts and Building Permits (Bureau of the Census)
This may be the big report of the week. And it may show that housing starts, after dropping from a 2 million start rate, are settling in at something closer to 1.7 million. Thus, housing starts have cooled but are not continuing to fall sharply. And that may be a signal that the overall economy, having cooled off, is beginning to settle in at a more modest pace of activity, but not continuing to cool further.

By the End of the Week
The overall sense from another week of data may be that the economy has cooled but isn't continuing to lose steam. Elsewhere around the globe, the news is more about inflation than economic growth. Lower energy prices help limit the inflation potential. But that is not the only reason why retail inflation has eased a little in China, while wholesale prices fell in October in the U.K. and in Japan — for the first time in a year. Unfortunately, the latter is tied to a small dip in industrial output and overall economic growth. Still, the overall sense from the economic data is a little more positive now than a month or two ago. And that is being reflected in the latest releases for the Leading Economic Indicators as well.