Macworld: What Dreams May Come
It is fairly likely that Apple will introduce a new wide-screen iPod with touch-sensitive and wireless features in the next two to six months, according to Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster. "We believe that the new iPod will be a significant improvement to the fifth-generation iPod as the device becomes more video-centric," he stated.
Gene Munster, an analyst for investment firm Piper Jaffray & Co., took a look at the pre-Macworld Conference & Expo rumors, and has offered us his odds on what Apple Computer (Nasdaq: AAPL) will surprise us with on Jan. 9.
Munster thinks that new product announcements could include an Apple-branded cell phone, a new video-capable iPod and the release of the iTV home entertainment appliance. Announcing any of these products at Macworld Expo would be a positive for Apple; not announcing a cell phone would be seen as a negative.
Munster broke out his certainty-ranking system to rate the likelihood of products and features. A "10" is highly likely; a "1" indicates what is extremely unlikely.
Get Ready for the Phones
The likelihood of Apple's cell phone entering production in the next two to six months gets a 9. A candy-bar form factor version of the phone within the next six to 12 months also gets a 9.
A smartphone version of Apple's cell phone with an integrated keyboard has a likelihood of 7.
A radio-transparent cell phone casing gets only a 3, and iChat mobile video and instant messaging seems unlikely with a ranking of 2. Including an iSight camera, however, along with 4 GB or 8 GB of storage has a higher likelihood with a 6 ranking.
Munster commented, "Just as Apple waited several years to enter the MP3 market, we believe the company is well-positioned to enter the phone market now that early music-enabled handsets have tested the waters. Apple will differentiate itself by offering iTunes integration on Macs and PCs, and by leveraging its expertise in software engineering for media-playing devices."
Yet Another iPod
Seeing a new wide-screen iPod with touch-sensitive and wireless features in the next two to six months is fairly likely, with a 7 ranking.
"According to several Apple patents, along with word from component suppliers, Apple is working on a sixth-generation wide-screen iPod that could feature touch-screen capability," Munster noted. "We believe that the new iPod will be a significant improvement to the fifth-generation iPod as the device becomes more video-centric. As such, the iPod line would feature small music-centric and 'wearable' players, as well as a larger music player with more video-centric features."
Ready or Not, Here Comes iTV
Apple in September 2006 announced its home entertainment center hub that links the music and videos on your computer to your TV. Munster gives a 10 ranking to the possibility that we'll see the iTV device in the next two to six months, and that it will have features that weren't previously announced.
"We believe Apple could release an improved model with an internal hard disk drive," Munster stated. "Downloadable movies average about 1.5 GB each on iTunes, and one way that Apple can ease capacity restrictions is to add hard drive space to the iTV."
What Else Will Apple Do?
The likelihood that we'll see Mac OS X v10.5 (Leopard) released at Macworld only gets a 3. It's also unlikely that we'll see the rumored ultra-portable, 12-inch MacBook Pro in the next 12 to 18 months -- Munster ranks that with a 4.
"Another possibility is that of a touch-screen tablet Mac," he said. "Rather than marketing the tablet computer to business users (like tablet PCs), we believe that a tablet Mac would be targeted at home users desiring to wirelessly control media content. Again, this rumor is a stretch, because we have not seen any hard evidence -- other than several patent applications -- that point to the release of a tablet Mac."
Apple has already fueled speculation over what CEO Steve Jobs will announce during his keynote presentation at Macworld Expo next week. The company's Web site now sports a graphic that states, "The first 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007."
