Cramer's 3rd August video posting.

he know the true impact of subprime melt down?

Cramer: Why I Took the Fed to Task on 'Stop Trading'

Look out for the video on what Carmer comments.

How to make profit on Bull Put spread (Credit Spread)? Steps

Bull Put Spread.

The Condition to get the trade right for Bull Put Spread:-

1. high Volatility - mean the option premium is expensive but this will happen on the SOLD LEG (short PUT), just remember the higher the stock Volatility the better it is. (please do a comparing to other stock or set a value for it.) Hint: higher beta in stock.

2. high Delta - The higher the Delta the better it is, why? so this will make the option premium expensive. the best is get near to 1 in delta value but most of the time is under 1 something like 0.8 etc.

3. more open interest - the more the better, why? this will make the option more easily to trade on ether buy or sell the option, because the liquidity is there.

4. Trade the Bull Put spread while the STOCK PRICE are nearest to SOLD LEG strike price, like example the strike price is 120, the stock price is 119.95 to 119.98 - This will help you to get maximum credit as possible as. (make sure is out of money option)

5. To trade the bull put spread after market opening 5 to 10 min., this is because once you choose the stock that you going to trade the price of premium will tend to move around.

Key point to know For this case:-

- When is company's Earning Announcement DATE, AAPL is 07/25/2007

-AAPL is bull for future earning on ipod sale, new ipod phone sale and as well as new coming future product that welcome the consumer market.

-This trade is done on 6/27/2007 which mean must have min. more than one month before Expiration.

- Breakeven is:-
(Higher strike price - Maximum Credit at Expiration Per contract)

$120 - $2.05 = $117.95

Therefore the breakeven is $117.95

- Maximum Credit at Expiration is:-

(higher strike price premium X no. of contract X 100) - (Lower strike price premium X no. of contract X 100)

($4.60 X 2 X 100) - ($2.55 X 2 X 100) = $410

Therefore is $410 (Maximum Credit at Expiration)

- Maximum Loss at Expiration is:-
[ ( Upper Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) X number of contract X 100 ] - Max. at Credit
[ ( $120 - $115 ) X 2 X 100 ] - $410 = $590

Therefore is $590 (Maximum Loss at Expiration)

NOTE: (- Credit is Reward, - Loss is Risk.)

Bull Put Spread unlike the straight Put that needed to go for cheap premium to have maximum leverage.

The Best is YOU must record on what you are trading on, that will help you to learn more and understand more on option trading. because there is too much things to know.

WARNING! Please take note Before you trade, please do your fundamental analysis, this article is just only a guide to help you get the trade right by 40%, the rest is economy data, fundamental analysis, market sentiment, insider trading and other more..etc.

Spread Trade Risk Disclosure:-

Before using our spread and combination one-step trading screens, options spread traders must understand the additional risks associated with this type of trading.

While it is generally accepted that spread trading may reduce the risk of loss of the trading of the outright purchase of a standardized option contract, an investor/trader MUST understand that the risk reduction can lead to other risks.

1. Early exercise and assignment can create risk and loss. Spreads are subject to early exercise or assignment that can remove the very protection that the investor/trader sought. This can lead to margin calls and greater losses than anticipated when the trade was entered.

2. Execution of spread orders is "not held" and discretionary. Spreads are not a standardized contracts as are exchanged traded put and calls. Spreads are the combination of standardized put and call contracts. There is NO spread market in securities that are subject such benchmarks such as "time and sales" or "NBBO" (National Best Bid/Offer) and therefore the "market" cannot be "held" to a price.

3. Spreads are executed differently than "legged" orders. Spreads are used by strategists as examples of risk protection, profit enhancement and as a basis for results and return on investments. However, these strategies ASSUME that the trade can actually be executed as a spread when market forces may and can make the actual execution impossible. Spreads are a bona-fide trades and not "legged" or "paired" of individual separate trades. For example: options prices on cross-markets are misleading for the spread trader. An option may be offered on one exchange and bided on another exchange that can lead the trader to believe that their spread trade should be filed, when, in fact, the bids and offers must be on the SAME exchange. As all bona-fide spreads are routed and executed on "one" exchange.

4. Spreads are entered on a single exchange and are acted upon by a market maker. Spreads are executed at the discretion of a market maker and when cancelled or filled require that the market maker take manual action and require manual reporting at times. Delays for reporting of fills and cancels may create additional risks in fast or changing markets. Spreads entered through optionsXpress one step spread screens are ALWAYS entered as spreads and as such are subject to the market risk and conditions as explained above.

For more information on the characteristics and risks of standardized options, please visit our Risk Disclosure page.

Mega merge on Barclays and ABN Amro.

According to internet news, Barclays and ABN Amro will merge together as one company, this merge will be a mega merge. why is a mege merge? I have search the information on Barclays and ABN Amro below.

Barclays PLC
Barclays PLC is the largest bank in the world by total assets ($1.59 trillion), the 14th largest in the world by Tier 1 capital ($32.5 billion), and the 15th largest in the world by Market capitalization ($71.6 billion).[citation needed] It is the third largest bank in the United Kingdom based on assets.


ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO ranks eighth in Europe and 13th in the world based on total assets, with more than 4,500 branches in 53 countries, a staff of over 110,000 full-time equivalents and total assets of EUR 999 billion (as at 30 September 2006).

The bank has developed a strategy of having three home markets: The Netherlands, the United States, and Brazil. The U.S. commercial banking operations of ABN AMRO consist of LaSalle Bank in Chicago, Illinois and LaSalle Bank Midwest in Detroit, Michigan which operate under the name LaSalle Bank Corporation. LaSalle Bank Midwest is the former Standard Federal Bank, which changed its name on September 12, 2005. ABN AMRO also operates ABN AMRO Mortgage Group, one of the leading mortgage servicing companies in the US. In Brazil, ABN AMRO's subsidiary is Banco Real. Banco Real recently completed an acquisition of Sudameris, a peer bank in the Brazilian market.

Just take note both size of the company is huge!

Halliburton's Exchange ratio offer on KBR.

Halliburton's offer the KBR maximum exchange ratio of 1.595 and on top of that with a discount of 7.5% is interesting but KBR forecast on sale is on the downtrend, I think this should be last for a short while.

What I have searched so far is:-
The analysts that rate KBR is a "HOLD" and for the charting side is bearish.
The KBR company senitment is bad .
KBR Peer and industry comparison .

Does US slow down affect KBR business?

Will the stock price fall after spin-off? if yes, is a good time to buy them. if not, forget it!

Company Description:-
A global engineering, construction and services company supporting the energy, petrochemicals, government services and civil infrastructure sectors.

Background:-
From building naval ships in WWII to fighting oil-well fires, delivering gas, and serving meals in Iraq, KBR (formerly known as Kellogg Brown & Root) has a red hot history. Other services include providing engineering, construction management, project management, and facilities operations and maintenance services to military and governmental entities, as well as to the oil and gas, infrastructure, pulp and paper, power, and process industries. KBR streamlined its operations and split into two divisions: government and infrastructure, which accounts for about 80% of sales, and energy and chemicals. Oil field services giant Halliburton is spinning off 20% of KBR through an IPO.

What's the next new thing for Apple?

According to reuters, Apple plan to introduce zippy notebook computers later this year that use the same type of fast memory as music players and digital cameras. This will help the consumer to eliminate the headache of lengthy startup times when turning on computer.

The adventage of using fast memory over a harddisk:-
-lesser take up space.
-weight lesser then harddisk which harddisk is big and heavy.
-faster run time when bootup the computer, also as well as loading program when using.
-using Chip is quiet than harddisk.
-can be upgrade by interchanging the chip with higher capacity.
-future Chip may be cheaper than harddisk in manfacturing cost.

The trend of using fast memory or flash memory will be there.

Therefore Seagate stock price may face selling pressure if they can shift their technology to a higher lever.

Apple stock is rated a buy and future Apple stock maybe bullish if they can really launch that new product out sooner than expected time.

AMD Warns of Lower Q4 Profit.

AMD (Quote) said income for the fourth quarter will be lower than expected because of lower processor selling prices in its competition with Intel (Quote).
AMD said Q4 operating income, excluding segments of and charges related to its purchase of ATI, is expected to be positive but substantially lower than in the third quarter.
The chipmaker said in a statement gross margin and operating income were impacted by "significantly lower microprocessor average selling prices," offsetting an increase in unit sales.
AMD said Q4 revenue, excluding ATI-related segments, is expected to increase roughly 3 percent from the $1.33 billion reported in the Q3 2006.
AMD will report Q4 results after market close on Jan. 23.
AMD shares were trading down $1.75 to $18.43 Friday morning on the news.
The news is reflective of the hot contest between No. 1 chipmaker Intel and AMD, which made some inroads into Intel's server market share with the introduction of its Opteron chips four years ago.
Among other perks, Opteron processors feature cache controllers built directly into the chip, an architecture that has impressed server makers because it reduces latency and eliminates the need for a separate chip.
With Intel rallying in recent quarters, AMD last year purchased ATI, a leading maker of graphics processors, which are becoming increasingly vital for next-generation gaming.
AMD is combining its Opteron chips with ATI processors under a brand called Fusion. Intel has said it will step up its graphics integration in 2007.

Is Orion HealthCorp (ONH) good for trading?

Who is BRANTLEY PARTNERS (who is the insider)?

I believe this is a trading buy only (trading buy mean trade on Technical analysis or Charting prediction), because there is no evidence to proof the company is earning profit. so beware of the risk. I have done my part of research here as you can see from those picture that I post it on this blog. Please feel free to browse MarketBlack Box Blog, so that you can have a good understand of what is investment research is all about. Thanks for reading..

Orion HealthCorp, Inc. is a healthcare services organization, providing complementary business management services to physicians through three wholly owned subsidiaries: SurgiCare, Inc., serving the freestanding ambulatory surgery center market. Integrated Physician Solutions, Inc., providing business services to pediatric practices and technology solutions to general and specialized medical practices. Medical Billing Services, Inc., providing physician billing and collections services and practice management solutions to hospital-based physicians.

This link will bring you to Zacks.com to study the company how good it is.
http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=report&t=ONH

Macworld: What Dreams May Come

It is fairly likely that Apple will introduce a new wide-screen iPod with touch-sensitive and wireless features in the next two to six months, according to Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster. "We believe that the new iPod will be a significant improvement to the fifth-generation iPod as the device becomes more video-centric," he stated.

Gene Munster, an analyst for investment firm Piper Jaffray & Co., took a look at the pre-Macworld Conference & Expo rumors, and has offered us his odds on what Apple Computer (Nasdaq: AAPL) will surprise us with on Jan. 9.

Munster thinks that new product announcements could include an Apple-branded cell phone, a new video-capable iPod and the release of the iTV home entertainment appliance. Announcing any of these products at Macworld Expo would be a positive for Apple; not announcing a cell phone would be seen as a negative.

Munster broke out his certainty-ranking system to rate the likelihood of products and features. A "10" is highly likely; a "1" indicates what is extremely unlikely.

Get Ready for the Phones
The likelihood of Apple's cell phone entering production in the next two to six months gets a 9. A candy-bar form factor version of the phone within the next six to 12 months also gets a 9.

A smartphone version of Apple's cell phone with an integrated keyboard has a likelihood of 7.

A radio-transparent cell phone casing gets only a 3, and iChat mobile video and instant messaging seems unlikely with a ranking of 2. Including an iSight camera, however, along with 4 GB or 8 GB of storage has a higher likelihood with a 6 ranking.

Munster commented, "Just as Apple waited several years to enter the MP3 market, we believe the company is well-positioned to enter the phone market now that early music-enabled handsets have tested the waters. Apple will differentiate itself by offering iTunes integration on Macs and PCs, and by leveraging its expertise in software engineering for media-playing devices."

Yet Another iPod
Seeing a new wide-screen iPod with touch-sensitive and wireless features in the next two to six months is fairly likely, with a 7 ranking.

"According to several Apple patents, along with word from component suppliers, Apple is working on a sixth-generation wide-screen iPod that could feature touch-screen capability," Munster noted. "We believe that the new iPod will be a significant improvement to the fifth-generation iPod as the device becomes more video-centric. As such, the iPod line would feature small music-centric and 'wearable' players, as well as a larger music player with more video-centric features."

Ready or Not, Here Comes iTV
Apple in September 2006 announced its home entertainment center hub that links the music and videos on your computer to your TV. Munster gives a 10 ranking to the possibility that we'll see the iTV device in the next two to six months, and that it will have features that weren't previously announced.

"We believe Apple could release an improved model with an internal hard disk drive," Munster stated. "Downloadable movies average about 1.5 GB each on iTunes, and one way that Apple can ease capacity restrictions is to add hard drive space to the iTV."

What Else Will Apple Do?
The likelihood that we'll see Mac OS X v10.5 (Leopard) released at Macworld only gets a 3. It's also unlikely that we'll see the rumored ultra-portable, 12-inch MacBook Pro in the next 12 to 18 months -- Munster ranks that with a 4.

"Another possibility is that of a touch-screen tablet Mac," he said. "Rather than marketing the tablet computer to business users (like tablet PCs), we believe that a tablet Mac would be targeted at home users desiring to wirelessly control media content. Again, this rumor is a stretch, because we have not seen any hard evidence -- other than several patent applications -- that point to the release of a tablet Mac."

Apple has already fueled speculation over what CEO Steve Jobs will announce during his keynote presentation at Macworld Expo next week. The company's Web site now sports a graphic that states, "The first 30 years were just the beginning. Welcome to 2007."

Falling Oil Prices Should Help Drivers

Falling Crude Oil Prices Should Translate to Lower Prices at the Pump

NEW YORK -- U.S. drivers could start seeing lower prices at the pump as early as this weekend, thanks to the cascading price of crude oil and a seasonal dip in gasoline, analysts say.
A gallon of regular unleaded gasoline costs an average of $2.325 across the country, according to the AAA.

---

Oil price falling too far down will cause the common stock to jump start the rally, and this is very likly to see a surge in stock price in US stock market. so a possible rebound can be see on the stock price. Trading activity will be active.
This kind of event is a short lift only.

May can have a slight rebound on MXIM.

MXIM may can have a slight price rebound.

Chart for 01/04/2007





After the weak selling is a good time to trade at weakness and sell on strength. base on the volume indicator (to spot for block purchase volume.)

SciClone on the move for Friday, Dec. 22

Shares of SciClone Pharmaceuticals are among volume leaders today on Wall Street after promising news about its experimental skin cancer treatment. The company's drug Zadaxin helped increase longevity of patients with midstage skin cancer when combined with chemotherapy treatments.

Sound like SciClone is going for a positive growth in the future? we shall watch carefully in their coming 10-Q report to compare with the current 10-Q report.

IBM researchers have fabricated a silicon device that's a significant advance in making practical optical interconnects.

December 22, 2006.
By forcing light to circle multiple times through ring-shaped structures carved into silicon, researchers at IBM have been able to delay the flow of light on a microchip. Being able to delay light is crucial for high-performance, ultrafast optical computers of the future that will process information using light and electrical signals.


It's easy to store electronic data in computer memory; light is harder to control. The new silicon device, described in this week's issue of Nature Photonics, is ten times smaller than those made in the past. It also works much better at high data speeds. "This work is approximately a factor of ten over the best achieved with [ring-shaped devices] so far," says Keren Bergman, an electrical-engineering professor at Columbia University.


Storing light on silicon is key for electronic-optical hybrid computers that researchers believe will be available a decade from now. In these computers, devices will compute using electrons but will move data to other devices and components using light--avoiding the use of copper wires or interconnects that tend to heat up at high computer frequencies....to be continous at Techreview.com (please clcik the link for further infomation.)

Microsoft announced quarterly dividend of $0.10 / share.

Wednesday December 20

Dividend of $0.10 per share payable in March.

Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT - News) today announced
that its board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share.
The dividend is payable March 8, 2007 to shareholders of record on February 15,
2007. The ex-dividend date will be February 13, 2007.

But is Microsoft a good buying stock? let's us study the data from my research below.

The best strategy is to follow the institutional player to buy at low price like example Goldman Sach, get their research on Microsoft report to know what their view on target price and the prospect of the business.

GE is on the bullish rally.

Weekly Chart - First the bullish support line must be there to wait for the MACD (12,26,9) and RSI (14) signal to get it bullish.

Weekly MACD (12,26,9) chart is bullish, cause by the signal (the black & red line) crossover MACD zero line. The MACD histogram is on the bullish (the bar show on the positive side).

Weekly RSI (14) chart on the bullish, the RSI (14) chart shows the signal crossover the RSI 50.

Daily Chart had must be in-line with the weekly chart to shown bullish signal.

After daily chart shown bullish on MACD (12,26,9) and RSI (14), Next the stock volume and stock price are the most important of all to take note to be shown confirmation bullish. Because the money is being put into the market to move up the stock price.

By study both GE weekly and daily chart the stock price are may projected bullish for the future. we my look at what the recent analysts think about the target price for GE, by going to Marketwatch.com to obtain the information. Information from Marketwatch.com are being aggregate, summarize and put up to be shown.

The Past GE stock price had not being perform well and this time GE have proven the stock price is going to be projected bullish for the coming future. No doubt the dividend is good. They have too many core business, GE is a good company that they are able to make the growth move forward and growth bigger. Is the matter of time, GE management that able manage it well and to proven to the market with the good earning result.

Honeywell expected a profit gain in 2007.

12/14/2006

Honeywell International on Thursday said it expects to meet its profit target for this
year and predicted double digit growth in earnings per share in 2007
which makes aircraft systems, building control systems and
automotive parts, and it still expects to report 2006 profit between $2.51 and
$2.53 per share on revenue of $31.2 billion. The company puts cash flow from
operations at about $3 billion. Analysts have tailored their forecasts to that guidance and expect, on average, profit of $2.52 a share and revenue of $31.16 billion. The company initial profit range for 2007 is $2.85 to $2.95 per share this would mean a double digit increase from the expected 2006 result. The sales figure of $32.6 billion would equal a 5 percent gain. Cash flow from operations is projected between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion.

Wall Street's profit expectation of $2.93 per share is within the company's
target range, but analysts are currently expecting more robust sales growth to
$32.75 billion.

New technology Chips will be out in sooner future.

The Chip maker Sony, Toshiba and NEC Electronics, on Thursday said that they had jointly developed technology to mass produce cutting-edge chips. NEC Electronics and Toshiba are also working to standardise technology to make advanced chips with circuitry width of 45 nanometre or finer with Fujitsu and Renesas Tech. Corp. The platform developed by the three Japanese companies will be used to make system chips, which combine multiple functions on a sliver of silicon, using 45 nanometre, the firms said in the joint press release. Chip makers worldwide are locked in a race to lower production costs on 90, 65 and 45 nanometre chips, with the smaller circuitry widths allowing more power per chip for complex devices. The three companies are developing a platform for low power consumtion chips, to be completed in early of 2007. Toshiba and NEC Electronics are also working to standardise technology to make advanced chips with circuitry width of 45 nanometre or finer with Fujitsu and Renesas Tech. Corp. Other companies that unable to follow them will may lead to lower profit and the trend of 45 nanometre will start to boost up, if other chip maker are able to produce cheaper cost.

Surge in Gold price and higher in Enegry price.

Gold futures price settled slightly higher Wednesday come with support from the rally in the Enegry price.

February 2007 gold price are most active and settled $0.70 up at $632.40 per troy ounce.
Gold Price had reach a support from the rally in the crude oil market on the heels of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that showed across the board draws in U.S. petroleum stocks, including a big down in crude inventories. Gold price down at the open. Analysts said that gold price hesitated around the $627 level, but finally pickup with helped by firmer oil. The January 2007 crude oil price settled up $0.35 to $61.37 per barrel. The January 2007 heating oil price up $0.96 to $1.732 a gallon. January 2007 unleaded gasoline price up $0.0224 to $1.6174 per gallon. January 2007 natural gas price settled up $0.0243 to $7.673 per million British thermal units (BTU).

This see like Gold price and Enegry price are related to each other as the U.S. stock price is weak. The Cool weather from the winter season would may draw the demand on those energy price. Let's us watch how OPEC meeting is going to like be.

GE expects double-figure profit growth for 2007.

GE reaffirmed on Tuesday itexpects earnings to increase 15 percent to 16 percent in 2006, and announced it. GE expects double-figure earnings growth for 2007. The Fairfield-based industrial, financial services and media conglomerate said it expects fourth quarter earnings in 2006 to increase 13 percent to 16 percent, or 62 to 64 cents per share. It said annual earnings for 2006 would show an increase to a range of $1.97 to $1.99 per share. The company predicted earnings to increase in 2007 by 10 percent to 13 percent, or $2.17 to $2.23 per share. Revenue is projected to rise to $175 billion next year, an 8 percent increase. "I think there's even better news ahead," GE Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt said at the company's annual outlook meeting in New York. "What we've tried to build and what we're building is a reliable growth company, not just strong in the short term but well positioned for next five years."

Previously, GE had predicted earnings per share in 2006 of $1.94 to $2.02
this year, up 13 percent to 17 percent. Analysts expect earnings of $1.99 per
share. GE shares rose 42 cents, or 1.19 percent, to close at $35.64 on the New York
Stock Exchange. In a more than one-hour presentation, Immelt said earnings in the
infrastructure business, which is GE's largest, will be up 16 percent in 2006,
and up by between 15 percent and 20 percent next year.

"Basically, everything here is good," Immelt said. "We're very well globally
positioned. Earnings for the financial services unit will be up between 10 percent and
15 percent this year and about the same next year, he said. GE's "Ecomagination" initiative, which was unveiled last year to boost sales of environmentally friendly technology such as pollution controls and wind power generators, has doubled revenue from $6 billion to $12 billion this year. GE projects it will rise to $14 billion next year.

Next is the analysts will have to upgrade GE recommendtion and the rating in future as after they have done their researching in GE.

An IBM supercomputer forecasts weather down to a one-kilometer resolution.

IBM has launched a new one-kilometer-resolution weather-forecasting service. This image shows that while some parts of Chicago were hit by severe thunderstorms (blue regions), other parts got off scot-free. Credit: IBM Research

(NOTE: For more information please click the above title link.)